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Sovereign Debt Crisis

The spring meetings of the MF, starting tomorrow, have a great agenda--as far as it goes. The focal issue, global imbalances, is indeed critical to the future of the gloal economy. But an emerging issue at least as important is the governance platform for resolving sovereign debt crises. And this is no where to be seen on the agenda for this weekend. Is the IMF going to stumble unprepared into the next crisis? See my blog on the Atlantic Council's website

The just-announced European Stability Mechanism is billed as Europe's plan for sharing costs of future debt crises with private bondholders. The need for such a mechanism is patent in a currency union without strong fiscal discipline, but the plan needs far more flesh to be a credible restructuring mechanism. See my blog on the Atlantic Council website for the story.

With Greece, the fantasy that sovereign debt restructuring is just an emerging market problem has been shattered. Rising debt in other advanced countries cries out for clearer arrangements for orderly sovereign debt restructuring. What must be done to avoid once again failing to anticipate the institutional requirements for dealing with the next global crisis? See my blog on the website of the Atlantic Council for an analysis.

"Will the Greece Rescue Program Rescue Greece?" Though markets panned the medium-long-term prospects for the program's success, the basic strategy and coherence of the program give it a decent shot at success. But even a modicum of bad luck would send it flying. Plan B is buried in the IMF documents describing the program. See full blog entry on this link to the Atlantic Council.

Canadian Broadcasting Company (CBC) interview on the Greek crisis: The Current, April 30, 2010 (click on Part 1: The Greek Economy. Forward to minutes 11:05-20:30.)

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