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Books on Central and Eastern Europe

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Explores how the new members of the EU managed to turn
large capital inflows during 1995-2005 into some of the
fastest growth rates in the world. Clearly, with the crisis a
sequel is needed: "What Next for Central and Eastern Europe?"

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This is the proceedings of a conference I organized along with the Czech National Bank on euro adoption in the new members of the EU. We brought together experts from both sides of the Atlantic on how adopting the euro would affect income convergence, on how important monetary policy independence is for the new members, and on a variety of preconditions (fiscal, financial sector, labor market) for success in the euro area.

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My co-authors and I took a systematic look at the costs and benefits of aiming for early euro adoption in the new members of the EU. We look at the cyclical alignment of the new members with the euro area, offer a quantification of both the benefits for trade and growth of euro adoption and the cost of losing monetary policy independence, and then consider strategies for meeting the Maastricht criteria and preparing more generally for successful euro adoption.

Evaluations

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This evaluation, for which I lead the team as a part-time consultant to the Independent Evaluation Office of the IMF after I left the regular staff of the IMF, examines the IMF's approach to and involvement in international trade policy issues since the establishment of the WTO in the mid-1990s. It zeros in on the questions of how well thought-out the advice was, how clearly it was embedded in a macroeconomic framework, how even-handed it was across different types of countries (in particular as between advanced/developing and conditionality/surveillance only), and how effective it was. 

This evaluation of performance of countries that borrowed through the Enhanced Structural Adjustment Facility (ESAF) came when the facility was 10 years old. This lending facility for low income countries aimed through the subsidized lending and conditions on macroeconomic, institution-building and structural change to boost the pace of development while bringing countries external borrowing in line with their access to aid and lenders. The evaluation focused on what could be learned from the successes and failures during the 10-year history of the ESAF

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This is the volume of background papers for the preceding evaluation of the ESAF. It looks in depth at methodological issues, measures of macroeconomic policies and structural reforms, determinants of growth, costs and benefits of low inflation in low income countries, ways of assessing the sustainability of the BOP in aid-recipients, how public enterprises were reformed, and causes of interruptions in reform agendas.

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Evaluation of mainly middle-income countries borrowing through the IMF's non-concessional window during 1988-92. The period is not as closely associated with crises as were the early 1980s or late 1990s, but most countries faced daunting combinations of weak growth, high inflation and large external debt. We found that countries' were reasonably effective in curbing external debt burdens, but less so in raising growth and lowering inflation. We zoomed in on assessments of disinflation strategies, the slow response of private investment to stabilization, and evidence that the IMF did not press hard enough for growth-enhancing structures of fiscal adjustment.

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The background papers for the evaluation of the IMF's lending to middle income countries. They provide in-depth analysis of the problems with fiscal adjustment, whether too much reliance was placed on raising interest rates, whether countries used nominal anchors sufficiently to lower inflation, how wage controls were used, and what happens to private saving during periods when countries borrow from the Fund.

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This is the first evaluation of the Enhanced Structural Adjustment Facility (ESAF) through which the Fund lent to low-income countries. Covering the first six years of the facility's life, it evaluates the IMF's approach to formulating macroeconomic and structural reform programs, countries' success in implementing those programs, and the effectiveness of the results for economic performance. This evaluation lead to a follow up study of the methodology of evaluating IMF-supported programs of adjustment and structural reform--see my CV or go to doi:10.1016/S0304-3878(00)00066-3 for a direct look at the article.

Managing Surges in Capital Inflows

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This book was written toward the end of the first wave of large capital inflows to emerging markets in the early 1990s.  It analyzes the experience of six countries that experienced large net inflows, examining the causes of, effects of and policy responses to the surge episode in each of the six countries.